Tuesday night brings a sizable slate of 15 games, all of them evening affairs, and we’re breaking down three of the best MLB player props, including strikeout lines on Zack Greinke, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Chris Archer.
We’re coming off a push on last night’s pick; Patrick Corbin probably could’ve come out for one more inning, considering he was still under 100 pitches, but we’ll settle for the tie.
After an undefeated Monday, our subscription plays are now going 163-120 on the season. Sign up for the full package today and get the first week for free.
Here are three plays we like for Tuesday.
Diamondbacks SP Zack Greinke
Under 6.5 Ks (-130)
Greinke has been lights out for Arizona this year, especially of late, posting an ERA of just 1.09 over his last six starts. He’s 6-1 on the season, giving up just 8 walks to 62 total strikeouts.
So why am I on the under tonight? I think there’s a decent chance that Greinke doesn’t put in a full night’s work tonight after leaving his last start on Friday with an abdominal strain.
The MRI revealed nothing serious. Greinke threw a bullpen session the will be back on the mound without missing any time.
“I just knew something was wrong and didn’t want to take the chance of hurting it more,” he told the Associated Press after the game. “At first I thought it was an oblique thing, but it seems to be in a different spot.”
While there’s no word of Greinke being on any pitch count tonight, the Diamondbacks are right in the thick of the wildcard race and would be wise not to take any risks with their ace.
Even if the injury is a non-factor, Greinke hasn’t been dominant in the K department. While he’s been incredible over his last six starts, he hasn’t been doing it with strikeouts, posting totals of 4, 7, 7, 4, 7, & 5. He also sports a below-average K/9 mark of 7.8 over his last 20, while his 0.96 K/IP on the season ranks just 50th.
Red Sox SP Eduardo Rodriguez
Over 6.5 Ks (+104)
Rodriguez ranks 22nd in that K/IP category, averaging 1.13 strikeouts per inning.
He’s coming off a 10K outing against a poor Rockies lineup and once again gets a good draw tonight against the Blue Jays.
- Toronto has the 11th-worst K/9 rate in the league at 9.17
- They struggle against lefties, striking out 23.6% of the time while hitting for a .228 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and a paltry power number of .112 ISO.
- Their .218 batting average is dead last in 2018, and they’re hitting just .181 over their last three
Rodriguez has struck out 26.7% of the batters he’s faced in 2019 and has gone over 100 pitches in three straight games. He’s owned the Jays in his career, albeit in a small sample, striking out 10 of 30 batters for a phenomenal 33.3 kRate.
Shop around and see if you can find a line of 6 Ks anywhere, but I still like the value at plus odds on 6.5.
Rays SP Chris Archer
Under 5.5 Ks (+110)
Archer may have the talent, but he’s struggled with control, consistency, and injuries so far in 2019.
He was rusty and got rocked in his first start since returning from the 10-day DL on Wednesday after suffering a thumb injury on April 26th. Archer gave up seven runs and lasted just 3.2 innings last Wednesday against the Diamondbacks. The biggest concern is the walks — he gave four batters a free pass in that start and now has an underwhelming 34:16 K/BB ratio on the season.
Walks could be a problem once again tonight with umpire Todd Tichenor behind the plate — he calls 6.55 BB/9, 1.05% above the league average.
It’s true that tonight’s opponent fields a bad lineup, but the Rockies have actually been pretty decent against right-handers with a .338 wOBA and good power numbers at .204 ISO.
After allowing at least six earned runs in each of his last two starts, Archer needs to prove he’s back to form before he becomes worthy of an over again.
