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NBA Player Props Tonight (1/20): Taking the Under on Melo

  • Blazers guard Carmelo Anthony goes under the spotlight as we tell you how to play his PRA total of 20.5 
  • He and the Blazers are at home versus the Memphis Grizzlies Pacers — tip-off at 10:00 PM ET
  • The Blazers are 1-point favorites in a game with a 223-point total

Our NBA player props tonight key on Anthony, who’s coming off a stretch of games where he’s underperformed with Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum out for the Blazers. 

Here’s why I’m backing that trend to continue.

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Blazers Forward Carmelo Anthony

Under 20.5 PRA (-110 @ DraftKings)

Playable down to 19.5

Melo isn’t what he used to be, and he hasn’t come close to this number lately, scoring 10, 11, and 14 points in his last three games while failing to register more than three rebounds or two assists. The 36-year old is averaging 12.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists (16.5 PRA) on the season. 

Unsurprisingly, books moved his PRA line from 22.5 last time out to 20.5 and even 19.5 on FanDuel today, as they’re tired of taking a beating on Melo. With Nurkic, McCollum out, you’d think Melo’s output would be higher, but we just haven’t seen it. 

Grizzlies Matchup

Memphis allows the eight-fewest rebounds to PFs (9.48) and the fourth-fewest assists per game (3.08). They’re 12th in PPG allowed to the position(20.02), but Anthony has only scored more than 15 points twice this season.

His 3.1 rebounds per game is the lowest of his career, well behind his previous career-worst average of 5.4. He’s an all-time low in boards, points (12.2), and second-worst in assists (1.2) next to his 10-game stint in Houston (0.5).

  • He’s 12.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists at home this season (16.5 PRA)
  • 10.2 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.2 assists over his last four (13.4)
  • Anthony’s averaged 24.2 minutes per game over his last four

He’s only hit 30 minutes once this season and is averaging 27.5 over the last two. Since McCollum went down, Anthony’s averaged just 12.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game (16 PRA). 

On the season, Melo under this total in 10-of-13 games.

Conclusion

Teammate Enes Kanter’s rebound total is 13.5 tonight, and Grizzlies’ Brandon Clarke’s is set at 8.5. Those two should run the boards in this meeting, along with Lillard, Ja Morant, Kyle Anderson, and Dillon Brooks are all more than capable of five or more rebounds.

I like for Melo to combine for fewer than six rebounds and assists and maybe hit that low-teens number scoring he’s done in three of his last four.

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