Most of the offshore books have been a bit stingy in the number of season-long NFL props they’ve released, but here in the regulated sports betting wonderland New Jersey, we’ve been analyzing dozens of lines for months.
You can use this analysis when more offshores lines are eventually released, but in the meantime, I’m adding them to our official list of Season Long Prop Bets to Attack.
These two lines come from the DraftKings sports book.
Patriots RB James White
Under 950.5 Total Rushing & Receiving Yards (-110)
James White never came close to 950 combined rushing and receiving yards until 2018, where he led the team with 123 targets, a 43% increase over his previous career high.
Before that, White’s best combined yardage total was 717 in 2016.
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It’s possible White could repeat those 123 targets from last year, but with better health for a lot of Patriots players, plus a potential full season from Josh Gordon, it’s likely he’ll struggle to maintain that kind of volume.
Rushing & receiving player props are also generally one of the most inefficient markets out there. At the game level, these all-purpose yardage props have gone under 60.8% of the time.
Bears RB Tarik Cohen
Under 1000.5 Total Rushing & Receiving Yards (-110)
Much of the same can be said about Cohen.
The coaching staff obviously wasn’t a fan of Jordan Howard since they traded him to Philadelphia. Rookie RB David Montgomery has the college production profile and draft capital that suggests he could immediately become a three-down player, and the coaching staff seems to believe that too.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 19, 2019
The Bears WRs should also be better and healthier than they were last year. Allen Robinson was recovering from a torn ACL, while Anthony Miller battled a shoulder injury for most of his rookie season. WR production sees the biggest increase between their first and second years, so a healthy Miller could cut into Cohen’s targets even more.
The Bears No. 3 RB last year, Benny Cunningham, had a grand total of 11 rush attempts and 2 targets, and Taquan Mizzell had 9 and 10 respectively.
The new No. 3 is Mike Davis, and while he’s not really a player we’re high on – we also hit the under on his rushing total – he should soak up a few more touches than Cunningham and Mizzell did, even if Montgomery doesn’t get the workload we expect.
Expect to see at least slightly reduced volume for Cohen and possibly some regression to his efficiency numbers. Of the 31 RBs to record at least 40 targets in 2018, Cohen ranked number one in the league with 8.1 yards per target. That’s one full YPT more than players like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara, and two more than Saquon Barkley. Even is Cohen is good again in 2019, it will be hard to repeat his 2018 efficiency.
If you consider 2018 the upper range of outcomes for both these players, then these lines are probably about what we should project for a full 16-game season for both of them, or maybe even still a little high.
These lines are high enough that there are multiple ways to cash the Under on these bets, including reduced efficiency, reduced volume, or the ever-present possibility of an injury at the game’s most injury-prone position.