When it comes to NFL player props, no position has more bet types or data points to draw from than quarterbacks.
Earlier in the week, we broke down two years worth of data to answer some big-picture questions on player props and discovered that you should be playing a lot more unders.
I wanted to draw on that data to find out what we can learn about QBs specifically. They’re a unique case because they not only have more bet types than any other position, but they touch the ball on every play, and that increased volume means less statistical noise.
Those who subscribed to our email list last year and got our exclusive free plays – which went 6-0 – know that we leaned heavily on QB props for this exact reason. When we really didn’t want to lose a bet, we defaulted to the least-noisy props.
Do QBs hit the over more often than other positions? Are they heavily affected by home-road splits? Let’s find out.
Unders Still Rule, But Less So
In our last piece, we discovered:
- WRs go over their prop-betting line about 43.7% of the time
- RBs go over at a 41.9% rate
- TE’s are the worst Over bet on the board at 40.9%.
QBs hit the over more than any other position, but with just a 44.4% win rate, they still make for a poor investment.
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- If you’re going to bet the over on a QB prop, it should generally be on completions, which hit at a 46% rate, higher than any other bet type.
- The worst QB prop bet you can make is the over on passing TDs. These are high-variance bets due to TDs being generally fluky, yet the unders come in at a 57.1% win rate.
- The amazing thing about passing TD props? Unlike most of these bets which have an average vig of about -118 (1.85), the unders on TD props pay an average of +105 (2.05)! Is there another bet in the world where you can close your eyes, hit 57.1%, and get an average return on investment of 105%?
- Passing INTs are basically a coin flip, but the juice is brutal — these props have an average price of -141 (1.71), making them basically unplayable.
- Also note that I took the passing INT props out of the main total — the “over” on these is basically the under since you’re fading a player.
The Best QB Prop Bet You Can Make
Things get really interesting when we dig into the home-road splits at the position. I broke it down by bet type:
- Home-road splits matter for QBs more than any other position — they are approaching a coin flip at home, but on the road, they hit the over just 41.3% across all bet types.
- The effect is most pronounced with QB rushing yards props. At home, you can justify picking your spots on the over with a 48.3% win rate, but betting on QBs to go over their rushing line on the road is the worst bet you can make at a horrendous 38.8% win rate.
- Conversely, that means that one of the best NFL player prop bets you can make is the under on rush yards for visiting QBs — a 61.2% hit rate.
- We see similar results with passing yards and passing TD props — QBs go under on those bet types a lot more often when they’re on the road.
- Interestingly, the home-road splits don’t seem to affect volume (pass attempts) nearly as much, with only a 0.6% difference, meaning the home-road splits mostly affect efficiency.
- There’s not much to take away from the INT props — considering the heavy juice on what’s close to a coin flip, you probably shouldn’t be betting them.
These findings will shape our betting strategy, and we hope they shape yours.
If you are going to bet any QB overs, make sure he’s at home. Otherwise, you should be hammering unders, especially when they’re on the road.