Bet the Prop
Image default
NFL

Odell Beckham Props: Is Freddie Kitchens Cookin’ up a Monster Season?

We bore witness to one of the wildest stretches of any NFL offseason in recent memory, and in the fallout, we’re taking a look at some of the betting lines for the new places in new faces, including some Odell Beckham props.

Antonio Brown is now in the silver and black, Foles took that big-Nick magic to Jacksonville, and Devin Funchess is looking rather undervalued in Indy.

As for Beckham, he’s a Brown, and I can’t believe the Giants actually pulled the trigger on trading a HOF-caliber talent WR.

Considering the upgrade he’ll get at QB, I’m a little surprised his expectations are so reasonable at this point. Let’s look at the one prop that intrigues me the most.

Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Over 1100.5 yards (-125)

I played this line when it was first released at -115, but I think it still has value at this number.

Image.jpeg

Throughout his five-year career, Beckham has eclipsed this number in three out of five seasons, despite playing a full 16-game season just once. His career average of 92.8 yards per game is the second-most in NFL history, and that was with Eli Manning as his QB.

Image_1.jpeg

If you extrapolate his career average over a 16 game season, Beckham comes in at 1,485 receiving yards. Even if you project him at 12 games, he would still come out to 1113.6 yards (92.8*12), which still eclipses this soft line of 1100.5 yards.

For reference 16 pass catchers were able to go over 1,100 receiving yards last year, and Beckham came very close to topping this number despite only playing in 12 games.

If nothing else, it will be a nice to see Beckham with a fresh-armed QB. He’s played his entire career with a declining Manning at the helm and will now get to play with an ascending talent in Baker Mayfield. Their 2018 stats:

Image_2.jpeg

Although their 2018 stats are more comparable than you would think, it was clear that Manning left so many plays on the field for Beckham. If anything, Beckham has been propping up Mannings’ stat lines for years — he passes for 15.4 % percent fewer yards without Beckham in the lineup.

Image_3.jpeg

Coaching Upgrade

Beckham also gets a play-calling boost, going from Ben McAdoo (2014-2017) and Pat Shurmer (2018) to an exciting duo of HC Freddie Kitchens and OC Todd Monken.

Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator in Week 8 for the Browns last year after HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley were fired. Once this happened, Mayfield was finally able to showcase his talent, the result of which was Kitchens getting promoted to HC.

Image_4.jpeg

If you extrapolate, Mayfield’s eight-game sample with Kitchens over a full season, Mayfield would’ve thrown for 4,509 yards last year.

As for Monken, in one season as the Bucs’ OC, their QB combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards (5,125) and passing yards per game (320.3).

This is an offense with passing pedigree, and they just acquired a WR who has more receiving yards through his first three seasons than any other WR since 2000.

Over on Odell

With the combination of his immense talent and the upgrades at QB and coach, this line of 1100.5 yards seems too low for one of the best WRs in the game.

As always, the risk in these season-long props is injury, but I feel that factor is already well priced in here. Beckham, can easily clear this number without playing a full season if he can keep up with his career averages. 

The Play: Over 1,100.5 Yards

I would play this up to 1150.5 yards (-115). 

Related posts