We spent several weeks of this offseason breaking down the results of all NFL props from the last two years of prop betting data.
And with the regular season now 25% over (we won’t be betting many/any props in Week 17), I wanted to take a quick look at the early returns from the props markets after four weeks of the 2019 season. I’ll go through each position and look at the results of all the major types of NFL player props and offer a few thoughts on what we’ve seen so far.
It’s important not to overreact to these figures — these are small sample sizes and there is an element of statistical noise here.
Here is a look at the offseason research we did on historical prop results:
Year to date, our subscriber props are hitting at 60-34 (64%). Join the fun!
Let’s dive in on this year’s results.
2019 NFL Props — Quarterback
Takeaways
- Overs may be the new unders… at least when it comes to pass completions. We’ve been hammering the Overs on completions on likes of Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones in recent weeks, and on a league-wide level, Overs on pass completion are hitting at a solid and surprising 57.7% rate.
- Pass attempt props are flipped, however, as it’s the Unders hitting at a higher rate. This could just be noise, but either way, we prefer betting completions over attempts when possible.
- Passing yard props are a straight-up coin flip early on.
2019 NFL Props: Running Back
Takeaways
- Unders on RB rushing yards are always +EV, and 2019 looks no different so far with a 57.1% hit rate. They get injured too much and scripted out of games too easily.
- RB receiving props appear noisy early on, which is no surprise — they’re low-event props (as compared to QB attempts, for example, which are high-event), bringing with them a lot of variance. Pick your spots carefully.
- What is a surprise, however, is the early results from RB Rush+Rec props. In the offseason, we found that unders were clearly the way to go on these with a 60.7% win rate, but so far in 2019, it’s flipped, with RBs are going Over on Rush+Rec a surprising 54.5% of the time.
2019 NFL Props: Wide Receiver
Takeaways
- Our offseason work showed that WRs are the most efficient market overall, meaning you should pick your spots and lean towards unders. Not much has changed in 2019 so far.
2019 NFL Props: Tight End
- Continue to confidently bet the Unders on TE props. So far in 2019, unders on TE receiving yards are hitting at 60.8%, a continuation of the trend we’ve seen over the last few years with Unders hitting at 58.5%.
- Overs on receptions have a slight edge this year, however. But the sample is smaller, and historically TEs go Under on receptions slightly more often than they even do on yards (59.1% to 58.5%), so I wouldn’t take too much away from this.
Conclusion
Over is not the new Under, but it is looking stronger a few select spots so far this season, particularly on QB competitions and RB Rush+Rec yards.
We have had some success with Overs early in 2019, but those are mostly on lines that appear to be bad. I do think we’ll see unders have more success as the year progresses and the books sharpen their lines.
If nothing else, continue to look for RB and TE unders to target on a weekly basis.
