Defensive linemen are set to workout this Sunday, and potential first-overall pick Nick Bosa’s 40-yard dash time is next up as we look at the best 2019 NFL Combine prop bets.
For more Combine coverage, check out our earlier stories:
- Will anyone run faster than 4.22?
- Will Josh Jacobs run faster than 4.50?
- How fast will Kyler Murray run the 40?
- Is Parris Campbell the Fastest Man in College Football?
Spoiler alert, I bet the over on all of those, and that’s where I’m going again with Bosa.
Nick Bosa Best 40 Time
Over 4.65 Seconds (-125)
PointsBet, among others, has set the line at 4.65 seconds, while others have it at 4.68. I don’t think it will ultimately matter, but shop around for the lower line if you can.
Bosa weighs in at any of 263, 265, or 270 pounds, depending on which media outlet you believe. Even if he is on the lighter side, he’ll will struggle to go so low, if history is any indication.
Power Over Speed
Regardless of Bosa’s specific traits, which we’ll expand on in a moment, players of his size simply don’t run faster than 4.65 very often.
Using the PFR Combine Tool, I searched for every DE/EDGE to run the 40 at a weight of between 260 and 270 pounds over the last decade.
The table features 81 results and is fully sortable.
| Year | Player | Wt | 40YD▲ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Lawrence Sidbury | 266 | 4.53 |
| 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | 266 | 4.53 |
| 2013 | Cornelius Washington | 265 | 4.55 |
| 2015 | Alvin Dupree | 269 | 4.56 |
| 2018 | Marcus Davenport | 264 | 4.58 |
| 2018 | Ade Aruna | 262 | 4.6 |
| 2009 | Michael Johnson | 266 | 4.61 |
| 2015 | Owamagbe Odighizuwa | 267 | 4.62 |
| 2011 | Robert Quinn | 265 | 4.62 |
| 2011 | Ugo Chinasa | 264 | 4.63 |
| 2009 | Brian Orakpo | 263 | 4.63 |
| 2017 | Trey Hendrickson | 266 | 4.65 |
| 2018 | Bradley Chubb | 269 | 4.65 |
| 2017 | Carl Lawson | 261 | 4.67 |
| 2011 | Ryan Kerrigan | 267 | 4.67 |
| 2012 | Donte Paige-Moss | 268 | 4.67 |
| 2011 | Jabaal Sheard | 264 | 4.68 |
| 2012 | Whitney Mercilus | 261 | 4.68 |
| 2018 | Kylie Fitts | 263 | 4.69 |
| 2009 | Orion Martin | 262 | 4.7 |
| 2017 | Tarell Basham | 269 | 4.7 |
| 2016 | Shaq Lawson | 269 | 4.7 |
| 2010 | Jason Pierre-Paul | 270 | 4.71 |
| 2013 | Devin Taylor | 266 | 4.72 |
| 2010 | Daniel Te'o-Nesheim | 263 | 4.73 |
| 2012 | Olivier Vernon | 261 | 4.73 |
| 2011 | Aldon Smith | 263 | 4.74 |
| 2012 | Cam Johnson | 268 | 4.75 |
| 2015 | Ryan Russell | 269 | 4.75 |
| 2017 | Daeshon Hall | 266 | 4.76 |
| 2010 | Derrick Morgan | 266 | 4.77 |
| 2017 | Dawuane Smoot | 264 | 4.77 |
| 2012 | Chandler Jones | 266 | 4.77 |
| 2009 | Brandon Williams | 261 | 4.78 |
| 2013 | Alex Okafor | 264 | 4.78 |
| 2015 | Anthony Chickillo | 267 | 4.79 |
| 2011 | Greg Romeus | 264 | 4.79 |
| 2017 | Avery Moss | 264 | 4.79 |
| 2009 | Paul Kruger | 263 | 4.79 |
| 2012 | Frank Alexander | 270 | 4.8 |
| 2013 | Sam Montgomery | 262 | 4.81 |
| 2012 | Jamie Blatnick | 263 | 4.81 |
| 2013 | Joe Kruger | 269 | 4.83 |
| 2013 | Bjoern Werner | 266 | 4.83 |
| 2017 | Noble Nwachukwu | 268 | 4.83 |
| 2009 | Will Davis | 261 | 4.84 |
| 2014 | Zach Moore | 269 | 4.84 |
| 2011 | D'Aundre Reed | 261 | 4.84 |
| 2013 | David Bass | 262 | 4.84 |
| 2009 | Matt Shaughnessy | 266 | 4.86 |
| 2016 | Joey Bosa | 269 | 4.86 |
| 2014 | I.K. Enemkpali | 261 | 4.86 |
| 2011 | Markus White | 266 | 4.86 |
| 2013 | Armonty Bryant | 263 | 4.86 |
| 2016 | Jimmy Bean | 264 | 4.87 |
| 2012 | Derrick Shelby | 266 | 4.87 |
| 2012 | Vinny Curry | 266 | 4.87 |
| 2012 | Scott Solomon | 262 | 4.88 |
| 2015 | Cedric Reed | 269 | 4.89 |
| 2017 | Bryan Cox Jr. | 265 | 4.89 |
| 2010 | Jermaine Cunningham | 266 | 4.89 |
| 2014 | Ethan Westbrooks | 267 | 4.9 |
| 2012 | Justin Francis | 268 | 4.9 |
| 2017 | Garrett Sickels | 261 | 4.9 |
| 2016 | Romeo Okwara | 265 | 4.9 |
| 2015 | Lynden Trail | 269 | 4.91 |
| 2014 | Michael Sam | 261 | 4.91 |
| 2010 | Corey Wootton | 270 | 4.92 |
| 2013 | Tourek Williams | 260 | 4.92 |
| 2015 | Trey Flowers | 266 | 4.93 |
| 2014 | Tevin Mims | 260 | 4.95 |
| 2010 | Greg Middleton | 268 | 4.96 |
| 2012 | Jamaar Jarrett | 265 | 4.96 |
| 2011 | Ryan Winterswyk | 268 | 4.96 |
| 2014 | Kerry Wynn | 266 | 4.97 |
| 2009 | Derek Walker | 268 | 4.98 |
| 2016 | D.J. Pettway | 265 | 4.99 |
| 2009 | Ian Campbell | 265 | 4.99 |
| 2010 | Brandon Lang | 266 | 5 |
| 2010 | Jammie Kirlew | 260 | 5.05 |
| 2011 | Jeremy Beal | 262 | 5.14 |
Some takeaways:
- The average 40 time for runners at this weight is 4.80, a massive gap to our number of 4.65
- Just 11 of 81 EDGE/DEs ran faster than 4.65 seconds, meaning Bosa would have to run in the 13.5th percentile for us to lose
While Bosa possess an impressive array of pass-rush moves and straight-up power, there is not much to suggest he’s a guy who gets by on pure speed. Various scouting reports described his speed with phrases like “not top notch,” and “good-to-very-good.” His brother, former third-overall pick Joey Bosa, wasn’t known for his speed, either — he ran a 4.89 40 at 269 pounds at the Combine.
Both Bosas are better known for their power and technique, using sufficient speed to compliment those traits.
Nick is also recovering from core muscle surgery, which may not slow him down, but isn’t likely to make him any faster either.
Conclusion
None of that means that Nick Bosa can’t be successful in the NFL, but he’s not an athletic freak along the lines of former first-overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney.
A fast 40 doesn’t necessarily equate to NFL success for DEs, and I don’t expect it’s a drill that Bosa will be heavily focused on.
I’d play this number up to 4.69 seconds, and at our line of 4.65, I’d pay up to -150.
