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2019 NFL Combine Props: Nick Bosa’s 40 Time, O/U 4.68 Seconds

Defensive linemen are set to workout this Sunday, and potential first-overall pick Nick Bosa’s 40-yard dash time is next up as we look at the best 2019 NFL Combine prop bets.

For more Combine coverage, check out our earlier stories:

Spoiler alert, I bet the over on all of those, and that’s where I’m going again with Bosa.

Nick Bosa Best 40 Time

Over 4.65 Seconds (-125)

New Jersey-based oddsmaker PointsBet, among others, has set the line at 4.65 seconds, while others have it at 4.68. I don’t think it will ultimately matter, but shop around for the lower line if you can.

Bosa weighs in at any of 263, 265, or 270 pounds, depending on which media outlet you believe. Even if he is on the lighter side, he’ll  will struggle to go so low, if history is any indication.

Power Over Speed

Regardless of Bosa’s specific traits, which we’ll expand on in a moment, players of his size simply don’t run faster than 4.65 very often.

Using the PFR Combine Tool, I searched for every DE/EDGE to run the 40 at a weight of between 260 and 270 pounds over the last decade.

The table features 81 results and is fully sortable.

YearPlayerWt40YD▲
2009Lawrence Sidbury2664.53
2014Jadeveon Clowney2664.53
2013Cornelius Washington2654.55
2015Alvin Dupree2694.56
2018Marcus Davenport2644.58
2018Ade Aruna2624.6
2009Michael Johnson2664.61
2015Owamagbe Odighizuwa2674.62
2011Robert Quinn2654.62
2011Ugo Chinasa2644.63
2009Brian Orakpo2634.63
2017Trey Hendrickson2664.65
2018Bradley Chubb2694.65
2017Carl Lawson2614.67
2011Ryan Kerrigan2674.67
2012Donte Paige-Moss2684.67
2011Jabaal Sheard2644.68
2012Whitney Mercilus2614.68
2018Kylie Fitts2634.69
2009Orion Martin2624.7
2017Tarell Basham2694.7
2016Shaq Lawson2694.7
2010Jason Pierre-Paul2704.71
2013Devin Taylor2664.72
2010Daniel Te'o-Nesheim2634.73
2012Olivier Vernon2614.73
2011Aldon Smith2634.74
2012Cam Johnson2684.75
2015Ryan Russell2694.75
2017Daeshon Hall2664.76
2010Derrick Morgan2664.77
2017Dawuane Smoot2644.77
2012Chandler Jones2664.77
2009Brandon Williams2614.78
2013Alex Okafor2644.78
2015Anthony Chickillo2674.79
2011Greg Romeus2644.79
2017Avery Moss2644.79
2009Paul Kruger2634.79
2012Frank Alexander2704.8
2013Sam Montgomery2624.81
2012Jamie Blatnick2634.81
2013Joe Kruger2694.83
2013Bjoern Werner2664.83
2017Noble Nwachukwu2684.83
2009Will Davis2614.84
2014Zach Moore2694.84
2011D'Aundre Reed2614.84
2013David Bass2624.84
2009Matt Shaughnessy2664.86
2016Joey Bosa2694.86
2014I.K. Enemkpali2614.86
2011Markus White2664.86
2013Armonty Bryant2634.86
2016Jimmy Bean2644.87
2012Derrick Shelby2664.87
2012Vinny Curry2664.87
2012Scott Solomon2624.88
2015Cedric Reed2694.89
2017Bryan Cox Jr.2654.89
2010Jermaine Cunningham2664.89
2014Ethan Westbrooks2674.9
2012Justin Francis2684.9
2017Garrett Sickels2614.9
2016Romeo Okwara2654.9
2015Lynden Trail2694.91
2014Michael Sam2614.91
2010Corey Wootton2704.92
2013Tourek Williams2604.92
2015Trey Flowers2664.93
2014Tevin Mims2604.95
2010Greg Middleton2684.96
2012Jamaar Jarrett2654.96
2011Ryan Winterswyk2684.96
2014Kerry Wynn2664.97
2009Derek Walker2684.98
2016D.J. Pettway2654.99
2009Ian Campbell2654.99
2010Brandon Lang2665
2010Jammie Kirlew2605.05
2011Jeremy Beal2625.14

Some takeaways:

  • The average 40 time for runners at this weight is 4.80, a massive gap to our number of 4.65
  • Just 11 of 81 EDGE/DEs ran faster than 4.65 seconds, meaning Bosa would have to run in the 13.5th percentile for us to lose

While Bosa possess an impressive array of pass-rush moves and straight-up power, there is not much to suggest he’s a guy who gets by on pure speed. Various scouting reports described his speed with phrases like “not top notch,” and “good-to-very-good.” His brother, former third-overall pick Joey Bosa, wasn’t known for his speed, either — he ran a 4.89 40 at 269 pounds at the Combine.

Both Bosas are better known for their power and technique, using sufficient speed to compliment those traits.

Nick is also recovering from core muscle surgery, which may not slow him down, but isn’t likely to make him any faster either.

Conclusion

None of that means that Nick Bosa can’t be successful in the NFL, but he’s not an athletic freak along the lines of former first-overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney.

A fast 40 doesn’t necessarily equate to NFL success for DEs, and I don’t expect it’s a drill that Bosa will be heavily focused on.

I’d play this number up to 4.69 seconds, and at our line of 4.65, I’d pay up to -150. 

 

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