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2019 NFL Combine Props: Kyler Murray’s 40 Yard Dash Time

With the great Oscars prop betting fiasco of 2019 out of the way, we’re back to the football grind, looking for the best NFL Combine props ahead of this week’s event in Indianapolis.

The 40-yard dash is the Combine’s premier event, and we explained why we liked the over on anyone running a 4.22, as well as the over on Alabama RB Josh Jacobs’ 40 time.

Next up, a look the quarterback who may be the one first off the board at the NFL Draft, Kyler Murray.

Kyler Murray’s 40-Yard Dash Time

This number has been set at 4.37 with heavy juice on the over.

I liked the over on the Oklahoma Sooner when this prop was first released, but the value was somewhat questionable at -300. But with reports of a bulked-up Murray surfacing this morning, I’ve decided to lock in the over.

Weighted Down

The biggest knock against Murray is his size. He can’t do anything about his 5’10” height, but he’s apparently trying doing something about his weight.

NBC’s Peter King is reporting this morning that after playing for Oklahoma at 190 lbs this past season (the Sooners’ official site lists him at 195, for what it’s worth), he’s beefed up to somewhere north of two bills.

Daniel Jeremiah told me over the weekend that he heard Murray has bulked up to 203 pounds from his OU playing weight of 190. And calling around over the weekend, I heard it was 206.

-Peter King

If what King says is true, Murray’s chances of beating 4.37 are longer than the 33 percent probability implied by this line.

Historically Sprinting

We know Murray is fast; that much is clear from watching him play. He’s claimed to have run as fast as 4.30, and he also reportedly ran a 4.38 time at 2017 spring practices.

He didn’t do it at over 203 pounds, though, and it’s unlikely that he’ll approach that time this week — if he even runs at all, which is no guarantee.

I used the I used the PFR Combine Tool to find every QB from the last 10 years to run the combine at a weight of between 200 and 220 lbs. The table has 66 results and is fully sortable.

2016Brandon Doughty2135.22
2011T.J. Yates2195.06
2010Riley Skinner2145.05
2010Jevan Snead2195.04
2009Brian Hoyer2155.02
2014Keith Wenning2185
2014David Fales2124.99
2018Tanner Lee2184.98
2018Riley Ferguson2124.98
2018Kurt Benkert2184.95
2013Tyler Wilson2154.95
2014A.J. McCarron2204.94
2015Shane Carden2184.94
2011Scott Tolzien2124.92
2009Drew Willy2154.9
2009Rudy Carpenter2184.89
2016Cody Kessler2204.89
2018Nic Shimonek2204.88
2009Tom Brandstater2204.87
2015Connor Halliday2044.87
2009Nathan Brown2194.86
2010Thaddeus Lewis2154.84
2016Brandon Allen2174.84
2018Baker Mayfield2154.84
2010Max Hall2094.84
2012Kirk Cousins2144.84
2014Aaron Murray2074.84
2011Greg McElroy2204.84
2011Andy Dalton2154.83
2016Vernon Adams2004.83
2011Jeff Van Camp2184.83
2016Jared Goff2154.82
2018Austin Allen2104.81
2015Bryan Bennett2114.81
2018Logan Woodside2134.79
2009Chase Daniel2184.79
2010Colt McCoy2164.79
2016Connor Cook2174.79
2016Kevin Hogan2184.78
2013Colby Cameron2124.78
2016Trevone Boykin2124.77
2012Darron Thomas2204.77
2013Sean Renfree2194.76
2014Jordan Lynch2174.76
2015Garrett Grayson2134.75
2009John Parker Wilson2194.75
2009Mike Reilly2144.74
2012Case Keenum2084.72
2013Matt Scott2134.69
2012Austin Davis2194.69
2014Derek Carr2144.69
2014Johnny Manziel2074.68
2012Chandler Harnish2194.68
2010Zac Robinson2144.68
2014Connor Shaw2064.66
2012Jacory Harris2034.65
2017Joshua Dobbs2164.64
2014Stephen Morris2134.63
2018Quinton Flowers2144.63
2012Aaron Corp2154.61
2011Josh Portis2114.59
2013Geno Smith2184.58
2015Blake Sims2184.57
2017Trevor Knight2194.54
2012Russell Wilson2044.53
2011Tyrod Taylor2174.47

Some takeaways:

  • The average time of the 200-220 lb group is 4.80
  • The median time is 4.82
  • Not only did every runner fail to crack 4.40, none of the 66 QBs ran faster than even 4.47
  • Johnny Manziel was considered fast at 207 lbs; he ran a 4.68
  • Same goes for Russell Wilson, and he ran 4.53 at 204 lbs

Let’s get generous and assume that Murray is still tipping the scales at 195. Including every QB from the past decade between 195-210 lbs, the fastest time is still Wilson’s 4.53.

The Pick: Over 4.37 Seconds (-300)

Even if we ignore the rumored weight gain, Murray is still a big dog to go lower than 4.37.

The incomparable Robert Griffin ran the 40 in 4.33 at 223 pounds, but such a feat is rare, certainly much rarer than 33%.

Keep in mind that Murray may not run at all, in which case this bet will be cancelled. If he does, at these odds, I’m happy to wager that he’s not an all-time great sprinting QB.

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