With the bye weeks behind us, we’re back to a full selection of prop bets, leaving us plenty from which to pick and choose.
Scanning the main slate, I see value all over the board, but here are five of the best prop bets we’re zeroing in on for Week 14.
With the late addition of the Corey Davis under, we started the week 2-1.
Here are our records on the year:
Main Slate Article picks: 39-18 (68%)
Bet the Prop Overall Record: 264-190 (58%)
Colts WR TY Hilton
Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ Sportsbook.com)
If Hilton can put up 77 yards against Jaguars’ shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey in a game where the Colts were shutout, then there’s no reason why he can’t top 65.5 yards against 34-year-old Jonathan Joseph in a game with a 50-point projected total.
There are several encouraging trends working in Hilton’s favor in this key playoff matchup against the Texans:
- He’s torched them of late, averaging 149.8 yards over their last five meetings.
- The last time Hilton had less than 78 yards against the Texans was 2014.
- His indoor/outdoor splits are significant, as he puts up 82.5 yards per game under a dome compared to 60.4 in the elements.
The Texans play tough run defense, and this is an absolute must-win for the Colts. I expect Hilton to be heavily featured.
With an Action Network projection of 78.6 yards for Hilton, this number is simply too low. If the line moves, any number up to 74.5 is fine, and at the current line, I’d pay the vig up to -130.
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115 @ Sportsbook.com)
Watch for this line to head south in the hours ahead, as it looks as if the books haven’t learned the lesson from last week — Ekeler is not a lead back.
Once the money starts to pour in, I suspect this number will quickly drop.
Ekeler’s line against Pittsburgh last Sunday was set at 60.5 rushing yards, and he ended up miles short with 21 yards (1.6 YPC) on a career-high 13 carries.
Yes, the Steelers play fierce run defense, but that didn’t phase team mate Justin Jackson, who went for 63 yards on eight rushes (7.9 YPC). Jackson has earned a bigger rushing role, and I expect he’ll get it at Ekeler’s expense.
Even if Ekeler matches his career best in carries, he’d need to hit 4.5 YPC to top this total. It’s certainly possible against a Bengals defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry, but a lot of things need to go right.
With a projection of 40.5 yards on 8.8 carries, this is one of the best bets in the prop tool this week. I’d play the line down to 50.5, and at this number, would pay the juice up to -130.
Check out more picks via The Action Network.