I adore head to head prop bets.
As annoying as it is that the actual player prop lines don’t get released until Saturday at the earliest, it provides an opportunity to really dig into these bets, which have been highly profitable for us so far.
And on the whole, it’s been a stellar season so far. A solid Monday Night Football card capped off a 24-16 week (67%), putting us at 102-69 on the year (68%).
Time for some more Friday head-to-head prop bets.
John Brown > Travis Kelce, Receiving Yards
1 Unit to Win 1.27
You may as well just bet John Brown > The World this week.
Brown’s profile continues to be overlooked despite putting up the most Air Yards among all WRs over the past two weeks by a full 12.3%.
|Name||Tar||Rec||Rec Yards||Air Yards||YAC||TD||aDOT||WOPR|
Brown’s outlook only improves against a Cleveland secondary which just lost its starting right corner.
BetOnline’s prop builder often won’t let you pit a WR against a TE like this, but we’ll take the plus odds in what shapes up as a nightmare match up for Kelce.
The Jaguars are the best defense in the league vs TEs, and it’s not close. They surrender an average of just 25 yards per game, holding elite TEs Evan Engram to 18 yards and Rob Gronkowski to 15 yards.
You’d better believe we’ll be playing more Brown head-to-head props this week. You can find another pick over at the DFS Karma companion piece and we’ll have more to come throughout the weekend on the Twitter.
Blake Bortles > Ryan Tannehill, Passing Yards
1.5 Units to win 1.23 Units
Bortles heads to K.C. for a tilt with the league’s best offense. Coming off a 388-yard outing against the Jets, I like this spot for Bortles for a couple of reasons:
- He’s going to have to throw to keep up with the Chiefs. Luckily, K.C. is pretty accommodating that way, giving up the second-most passing yards per game.
- Leonard Fournette is out again, setting up a smash spot for Bortles.
Bortles passes for an average of 222 yards per game with Fournette, and 288 yards without.
As for Tannehill, it’s bad — even worse than you thought. The Dolphins run the second fewest plays in the league with just 50 per game, and their QB has paltry passing totals of 230, 168, 289, and 100.
It’ll be tough for Tannehill to find the kind of volume he’ll need to keep pace with Bortles.
Alex Smith > Aaron Rodgers, Passing Yards
1.2 Units to Win .98 Units
Rodgers may be the GOAT, but even he has his limits.
The Packers QB could potentially be without all three of his top receiving options this weekend in a key divisional game against the Lions.
Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Geronimo Allison have all been slapped with the questionable tag. Adams sounds likely to play, but his it’s fair to wonder how effective he’ll be.
And it’s not like Rodgers has lit up the Lions over the years. In his last three visits to Detroit, he has passing totals of 300, 273, and 162 — not bad, but not great by his standards. Meanwhile, limited by a knee injury, Rodgers is averaging 282 yards on the season.
Smith, meanwhile, is in a dream spot — facing one of the worst pass defenses in football on the league’s fastest track. It’s the same spot which prodded 246 yards from Tyrod Taylor and 417 yards from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Armed with a stout run defense and an elite passing game, the Saints are going to force Smith to the air.
Alshon Jeffery > Demaryius Thomas, Receiving Yards
1.5 Units to Win 1.13 Units
Jeffery returned to the lineup with a 8-105-1TD line against a tough Titans pass defense. Now he faces a team he’s blasted in recent years.
Going back to his days with the Bears, Jeffery has posted yardage totals of 249, 135, 34, 116, 10, 63, 10, and 85 against the Vikings and CB Xavier Rhodes, against whom he’ll mostly line up against on Sunday.
Jeffery averages 9.4 percent more yards against Minnesota than everyone else.
Thomas is averaging 42 receiving yards per game and has yet to eclipse 68 yards. He’s never been less effective at any point in his career.
Jared Cook > Amari Cooper, Receiving Yards
1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
Cook leaders the Raiders in targets and yards, while pacing all TEs in receiving yards with 370 in four games.
Both Cook and Cooper have been the epitome of boom or bust so far.
|Week 1 Yds||2||3||4|
Based on their respective match ups, however, I’m leaning towards a Cook blow-up week, especially since we’re getting odds on this bet.
Cooper will draw shadow coverage against Pro Bowl CB Casey Heyward, who held the WR to just one catch the last time they met.
2018’s breakout TE, Cook faces a defense which just got gashed by George Kittle for a 125 yards, losing starting linebacker Kyzir White along the way.
He rates as the best passing outlet in a game where the Raiders are five-point underdogs.