Betting the lines on QB yardage prop bets can yield some juicy values, thanks to the fact that the position tends to be very stable and predictable.
Touchdowns and interceptions? Not so much. These are high-variance events that are difficult to predict.
Still, QBs do get injured less than their counterparts at running back and wide receiver, so the pure volume of touches they handle generally cuts down on the high amount of variance involved.
Leverage the Cheat Sheets for QB Prop Bets
Let’s bust out the cheat sheets to see if we can spot any value in the interception prop bets for QBs.
These sheets compare the line being offered by betonline.ag against the season-long projections from three different fantasy football experts. Fantasy football has been the driving force behind some of the best analytics work in football, and they can give us a great baseline for player expectation.
Mike Clay works for ESPN and consistently provides some of the most accurate projections in football; his work is considered by many to be the gold standard in the industry. FF Today has been providing top-tier projections for years, while numberFire uses a proprietary analytics model to provide an unbiased set of projections.
How to read the table:
- The O/U column is the line that has been set by betonline.ag.
- “Clay proj” are the projections for each player from Mike Clay.
- The “Value” column is the difference between the line being offered and that rankers projection.
- For example, Andy Dalton’s INT prop betting over/under line is set at 14.5 , and Clay projects (Clay Proj.) him to throw just 11. So the difference or “value” (Clay Value) is -3.5, making the lean there the under. However, numberFire projects Dalton to throw 16.8 picks, going over the betting line by 2.3 INTs.
- To account for the variations across the projections, the final “Average Value” column is the average difference from all the projections.
- All the columns are sortable to make it easy to find the best values.
|O/U||Clay Projections||Clay Value||FF Today Proj||FF Today Value||numberFire Proj||numberFire Value||Avg Value|
Notes on the Over
- The biggest takeaway here is how heavily skewed these projections are towards low-INT totals for all of the QBs. Only four of the 21 passers are projected to go over their interception betting line, and only by the slimmest of margins.
- Between the potential for injuries, and the seemingly high INT totals being set by the books, you could probably bet the under on every player and show a profit.
- If you are looking at some overs, Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins appear to be your best bets. We’ve already pegged Brees as a lock to go over on his TD prop bet.
Notes on the Under
- An amazing 17 of 21 QBs are projected to go under their betting total for INTs.
- Russel Wilson’s INT over/under of 15 picks is particularly bizarre — he’s never thrown more than 11 interceptions in his career. This line makes no sense, and it’s an auto-bet for me.
- Cam Newton comes out as the second-best under bet on the board at 16.5. He’s thrown for 14 and 16 INTs in the past two seasons, but has a new offensive coordinator in Norv Turner, and he also gets security blanket Greg Olsen back from injury.
- Marcus Mariota’s 15 interceptions last year were 50 percent more than he’s throw in any other season. He was also battling injuries all of last year, and I love hitting the under on his 14-INT line here.