Quarterbacks tend to be some of the most dependable year-to-year performers in the NFL, and as a result their prop bet lines are some of the best to target for value.
They get injured less than their counterparts at running back and wide receiver, and the high volume of touches they handle cuts down on the crazy variance we see at other positions.
That makes QBs some of the best targets for player prop betting, both for full season and week to week.
The Cheat Sheets
To make things simple, we’ve assembled prop bet cheat sheets for every available player line being offered at betonline.ag.
These tables compare line being offered by bookmakers against the season-long projections from three different fantasy football experts. Fantasy football has been the driving force behind some of the best analytics work in football, and industry analysts give us a great baseline for player expectation.
Mike Clay works for ESPN and consistently provides some of the most accurate projections in football; his work is considered by many to be the gold standard in the industry. FF Today has been providing top-tier projections for years, while numberFire uses a proprietary analytics model to provide an unbiased set of predictions.
How to read the table:
- The O/U column is the betting line that has been set by betonline.ag.
- “Clay Proj” are the projections for each player from Mike Clay.
- The “Value” column is the difference between the line being offered and that ranker’s projection.
- For example, Aaron Rodgers’ yardage prop is set at 4049.5 yards, and Clay projects him at 4027. So the difference, or “value”, is -22.5, meaning you might want to lean towards the under. However, FF Today projects him at 4,338 yards, which would beat his yardage line by 288.5 yards.
- That’s why we have the final “Average Value” column, is the average difference from all the projections.
- All the columns are sortable to make it easy to find the best values.
| O/U | Clay Projections | Clay Value | FF Today Proj | FF Today Value | numberFire Proj | numberFire Value | Avg Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 4049.5 | 4027 | -22.5 | 4338 | 288.5 | 4621.02 | 571.52 | 279 |
| Alex Smith | 4149.5 | 4116 | -33.5 | 3559 | -590.5 | 3864.28 | -285.22 | -303 |
| Andy Dalton | 3499.5 | 4008 | 508.5 | 3530 | 30.5 | 3832.98 | 333.48 | 290 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4449.5 | 4631 | 181.5 | 4084 | -365.5 | 4502.02 | 52.52 | -43 |
| Cam Newton | 3449.5 | 3750 | 300.5 | 3425 | -24.5 | 3314.09 | -135.41 | 47 |
| Carson Wentz | 3999.5 | 4140 | 140.5 | 3506 | -493.5 | 3980.27 | -19.23 | -124 |
| Dak Prescott | 3399.5 | 3697 | 297.5 | 3455 | 55.5 | 3484 | 84.5 | 145 |
| Derek Carr | 3799.5 | 4024 | 224.5 | 3770 | -29.5 | 3872.68 | 73.18 | 89 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3799.5 | 3719 | -80.5 | 3346 | -453.5 | 3845.81 | 46.31 | -162 |
| Drew Brees | 4475.5 | 4395 | -80.5 | 4585 | 109.5 | 4724.61 | 249.11 | 93 |
| Eli Manning | 3949.5 | 4203 | 253.5 | 3851 | -98.5 | 3845.88 | -103.62 | 17 |
| Jared Goff | 3925.5 | 4026 | 100.5 | 3829 | -96.5 | 3971.41 | 45.91 | 16 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4399.5 | 4417 | 17.5 | 4056 | -343.5 | 4298.82 | -100.68 | -142 |
| Joe Flacco | 3225.5 | 3527 | 301.5 | 3656 | 430.5 | 3718.94 | 493.44 | 408 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4075.5 | 4327 | 251.5 | 4084 | 8.5 | 4289.55 | 214.05 | 158 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3450.5 | 3776 | 325.5 | 3640 | 189.5 | 3764.86 | 314.36 | 276 |
| Matt Ryan | 4175.5 | 4247 | 71.5 | 4325 | 149.5 | 4283.41 | 107.91 | 110 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4299.5 | 4460 | 160.5 | 4240 | -59.5 | 4537.59 | 238.09 | 113 |
| Philip Rivers | 4299.5 | 4337 | 37.5 | 4448 | 148.5 | 4345.02 | 45.52 | 77 |
| Russel Wilson | 3850.5 | 3826 | -24.5 | 3880 | 29.5 | 4108.6 | 258.1 | 88 |
| Tom Brady | 4764.5 | 4818 | 53.5 | 4450 | -314.5 | 4943.66 | 179.16 | -27 |
QB Prop Bet “Over” Takeaways
- The best bet to hit his over on the yardage prop is Joe Flacco. Every projection has him beating his total by at least 300 yards.
- The next three best values on the over are Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers, and Marcus Mariota. All three had a rough 2017 for a variety of reasons, but don’t be fooled by recency bias; numberFire in particular sees massive value in a bounce back season for Rodgers.
- Clay also sees tons of value in the overs for Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, and Eli Manning, much more so than the rest of the rankers.
- Players like Jared Goff, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers are all being projected at or near their betting lines. Unless you have good reason to think they will they’ll have an uncharacteristic season – good or bad – there is not much value to be found with this group of players.
Notes On the Under
- The under on Alex Smith passing yards looks like one of the best bets on the board, and it’s easy to see why. His line is set at 4,149.5 yards, higher than Aaron Rodgers! Yet, he’s only surpassed even 3,500 yards once in his career. Now he’s on a new team with fewer and less-explosive weapons than the ones he had in Kansas City.
- All three projections have 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo finish near, or below, his yardage line. Going over 4,399.5 passing yards is a lofty expectation for a relatively inexperienced QB with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin as his top targets. His full-season pace over his six starts last year was 4,160 yards.
- Deshaun Watson is also a solid bet to fall back to earth from his spectacular rookie season that ended in a torn ACL.
