We made it to opening night — it’s certainly a tight slate, but we weren’t going to leave you without some TNF props for Cowboys Bucs.
We know you’re hungry for a betting blast off in the first game, but keep in mind that with the exploding popularity of props, these initial lines have more thought and equity put into them than probably any opener in history. There are no layups out there for this game.
With that in mind, we’re recommending these two TNF player props as leans, which means 0.5 units (or 0.5% of your total betting bankroll).
However, we have already put out a number of screamer “official” plays for the weekend’s main slate for our subscribers. Join us here to get our full NFL prop slates alerted to your device.
We’re looking to make it three consecutive years of 60% or better winning percentage. Let’s jump into the picks.
TNF Props for Cowboys Bucs (9/9)
Tony Pollard Over 1.5 Receptions (-135 DraftKings)
There are whispers that the explosive Tony Pollard could cut into Ezekiel Elliot’s market share this year, particularly in the passing game. A dual-threat with elusive traits, Pollard averaged 2.8 receptions over his final two years at Memphis, then his targets doubled from year one to year two in the NFL.
He averaged 1.7 receptions per game last year, so any bump early on this year puts us in a profitable spot.
Pollard was 9-7 to the over on this number last year
I like his long-term outlook in what should be a high-volume offense, but this bet is mostly about the short-term and tonight’s opponent.
- Tampa Bay allowed by far the fewest RB rushing yards in the league last year
- That left them vulnerable to receiving backs, and they allowed the most RB receptions (6.3/game)
This all sets up well for Pollard, particularly in a game where the Cowboys are significant +8.5 underdogs and should be forced into passing a lot late in the game.
With the Bucs elite front-seven bringing the heat on a hobbled Cowboys’ offensive line, look for them to get the ball out quick to guys like Pollard.
Ezekiel Elliott Under 80.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115 DraftKings)
Which brings us to Zeke, whose props have been steadily creeping up since their early-week release, hitting a high watermark of O/U 80.5 total yards from scrimmage this morning.
Whether or not you buy into our thesis that Pollard steals some volume from Elliott this year, this is an absolutely brutal matchup.
We mentioned that the Bucs gave up the fewest rushing yards in the league, and they return almost everyone on defense. Last year, only three RBs hit this number against them, and in terms of props, the results were similarly spectacular.
Last season, 27 RBs got a Rush+Rec line against the Bucs, and only five of them went over their total (18.5%).
Zeke is really going to have to get a ton of volume on the ground, or break a long reception, in order to hit this number. We like Tampa’s chance of bottling him up as they have almost every other RB they’ve faced of late.
Go light on these props for fun, and join us for a huge slate of +EV action this weekend.