Denver’s dynamic rookie RB Javonte Williams leads the way as we break down two TNF player props for Browns Broncos.
Between injuries, weather, and two pretty good defenses, this game projects to be an ugly one, and with a paltry 41-point total, lowest on this week’s slate, bookmakers concur.
With so many unknowns, lines are a little more limited than what we’re used to for primetime games, so we’re just going small with a couple of leans for this one — we recommend playing them for 0.5 units.
Let’s dive right in, and if you’re looking for even more action, be sure to join us as a subscriber for full slates of daily prop picks, including NBA!
TNF Props for Browns Broncos
Javonte Williams OVER 11.5 Rushing Attempts (-105 @ DraftKings)
The Broncos second-round draft pick has been one of the most explosive and effective backs in football so far:
- 75% of his yards have come after contact, second among all RBs (min 20 attempts)
- 15.4% Broken Tackle%, fourth-best
- 25% Evasion%, second among all RBs, tied with Austin Ekeler
And while he’s hit this number in just 3-of-6 starts thanks to some negative game scripts and the continued involvement of Melvin Gordon, there are a few factors pointing to Williams being a little busier tonight:
- A banged-up Teddy Bridgewater
- A wet, windy forecast
- A tight game script
Bridgewater has taken an absolute beating over the last few weeks. He rushed back from a Week 5 concussion only to be sacked five times and take 17 hits against the Raiders last week – about one hit for every three dropbacks.
He’s officially questionable tonight but is expected to go; however, he’ll be staring down the barrel of DPOY candidate Myles Garrett, who’s racked up eight sacks in six games.
A heavy dose of the run game is the best way to slow down a pass rush, so given the matchup and Bridgewater’s multitude of injuries, expect Denver to stick with the run as long as possible.
That should be easier to do given the expected game environment. The forecast is calling for winds of 15-18mph with increasing rain in the second half. It’s looking like it’s going to be a muddy slog, which suits the run game more than the pass. Plus, with a spread of -1, the game should remain close enough that Denver can stick to the run, unlike in recent weeks where they’ve been forced off it while playing with big deficits.
Projections are as high as 14.1 carries with an average of 12.3.
Tim Patrick Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110 @ Fanduel)
In a correlated play, we’re expecting a quieter game from Denver’s No. 3 receiving option, who is 4-2 to the under on this number with a median result of 40.5 yards.
He’s been miserable at earning targets, commanding a look every 6.1 routes run, the fourth-worst mark among all WRs with at least 20 targets. His relatively deep 11.2 Air Yards per Target is not a great match for how this game sets up, considering the potential for wind and the certainty of Garrett harassing Bridgewater all night.
Don’t forget the Broncos have a new WR in the fold as well. John Brown only had six snaps on short notice last week, and it wouldn’t surprise to see him steal a few targets tonight now that’s he’s had more time to get up to speed on the offense.
The Browns have also been a pretty good under matchup as well, holding 58.8% of the WRs they’ve faced this year under their yardage total. All considered, it’s hard to see Patrick making much of an impact tonight.