The next stop on the PGA Tour is at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copperhead in Florida, and we’re looking at the best bets for the Valspar Championship.
Coming off an action-packed THE PLAYERS Championship last weekend, this week’s field will be smaller, and scores at the hazard-filled course will be higher.
For these Valspar Championship best bets, we’re using Matt Jones’ PGA model (@MattJonesTFR) as our guide. The model is available for free at RotoViz.
We’ll start with a handful of head-to-heads, and for those lucky enough to be betting in New Jersey, we’ve also got a whole bunch of Over/Unders on finishing position available at PointsBet.
Two things to keep in mind:
- The model is mostly meant for DFS and leans towards upside. Its scores don’t capture a player’s downside nearly as well.
- The two humans using the model to make the bets in this article are not golf experts. But blindly following the model has been profitable this year, including at last week’s TPC.
Russell Knox (-110) > Brandt Snedeker
- Knox scores a .97 in the model (97th percentile) and is its fifth-ranked player
- Snedeker scores a .66, 48th best in the field
- Per Jones, the model loves the fact that Knox has hit 70 percent of greens in regulation in five of his past seven starts
- For the season, his GIR percentage is sitting at 70 percent (48th), while Snedeker is hitting 66 percent (157th)
Jason Kokrak (-125) > Kevin Kisner
Followers of Matt’s work both here and at RotoViz know that the model loves it some Jason Kokrak.
- He’s the 10th-best performer in the model at .94, while Kevin Kisner scores a sub-par .44
- Kokrak’s bets finish here in eight starts is 7th
- Kisner’s best finish in two starts is 60th
- It’s a huge gap in upside and worth laying the -125 juice here
Louis Oosthuizen (-105) > Henrick Stenson
Louis Oosthuizen also pops out from the model, placing in the 93rd percentile, while Stenson scores in the 76th percentile.
However, Stenson is the favorite here, perhaps due to his superior history — he’s made three of four cuts and has a best finish of fourth. Oosthuizen has made three of six cuts and has never finished higher than seventh.
Expect this one to be close, but we have both the odds and the model in our corner.
PointsBet Finish Position Over/Unders
Let’s get to some some bonus picks for anyone able to bet via PointsBet in New Jersey, courtesy of John Lapinski (@FF_SkiBall).
These over/unders work a little differently:
- You bet a unit size, and for every position your player finishers over or under the set line, you lose or win a unit
- For ex, you bet $1 on Jim Furyk’s O/U of 33 and he finishes 23rd, you win $10. If he finishes 43rd, you lose $10
- There’s a little more detail and nuance to it than that, so if it’s your first time playing these, make sure you understand the rules
As you can probably tell, the swings are big in this type of betting.
However, by comparing a player’s ranking in the model to their finishing position O/U, John was able to identify these value bets:
Says Mr Lapinski about his takeaways from the model this week:
I like that Lucas Glover shows nicely. He’s had a lot of nice finishes, but his value may be depressed since he missed the cut last week. His last 10 events are two missed cuts, and eight top-20s with four top-10s.
I’ve been thinking I should probably look at some Overs here, since it’s essentially like betting unders in other sports, which is usually the sharper play since everyone likes rooting for Overs. But unders have been profitable so far, so I guess if it ain’t broke…
Good luck and have fun!
